UFC 232 Picks
When: Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:00PM EST
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV

In total, UFC 232 is scheduled to have 13 fights on the night. Two of those fights will be for championship belts and two of the scheduled bouts will be women’s fights. Without further delay, let’s step inside the betting octagon and examine the UFC betting odds, look for any MMA betting value, and make some UFC 232 predictions. UFC president Dana White, center, breaks up Jon Jones, left, and Alexander Gustafsson during a news conference talking about their light heavyweight mixed martial arts bout, Friday, Nov. Prime Picks: UFC 232. By Adam Martin Dec 28, 2018. UFC 232 is now available on Amazon Prime. UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya Fight Results Live Results, Winner Interviews And More From UFC 259, Live From The UFC Apex In Las Vegas Read the story. UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that was held on December 29, 2018 at The Forum in Inglewood, California.

Fight Analysis:

UFC 232 is a monster end-of-the-year event. That can be gleaned just by noticing that Cyborg vs. Nunes, a battle between two reigning UFC champions, isn’t even the main event. Cris “Cyborg” Santos has long been considered the top female fighter in the world, but luring big names into the octagon to face her has proven elusive. Enter Nunes, the reigning UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion. She looks to earn her second belt, as she goes after Cyborg’s UFC Women’s Featherweight Title. Who comes out ahead in this female superfight?

Cris Cyborg, 20-1 (17 KOs), (-255) vs. Amanda Nunes, 16-4 (11 KOs, 3 Submissions), (+215)

Cris “Cyborg” Santos takes on Amanda Nunes in UFC 232 on December 29 in Las Vegas. These Brazilian women are both at the top of their divisions and clearly the top two females in the sport today. Cyborg, 33, lost her pro debut, since winning every fight and leaving a lot of broken dreams and faces in her wake. She has made two defenses of her title and still appears to be at her peak. But the 30-year old Nunes is no wilting lily, having registered three defenses of the title she won by choking out Miesha Tate in 2015.

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Normally, when a fighter moves up in weight to take on an established champion, there would be size concerns. Nunes is the same height as her opponent at 5’8,” but lacks the overall muscularity of Cyborg. Despite that, Cyborg still struggles massively to make even 145 pounds, and Nunes might be better off from not having to drain herself. So, do you favor Nunes for not having to struggle and drain herself to make weight? Or do you simply favor the bigger athlete?

Both women carry with them massive reputations and rightfully so. You see Cyborg throwing these women around, and it’s hard to not marvel at how she appears to stand head-and-shoulders above the pack. She has been competing at a high level for over a decade, and no one has really been able to compete with her, with most of those opponents being dispatched of in brutal fashion.

Nunes really made a big turnaround in her career. It wasn’t that long ago when she was considered merely a dangerous contender. But after being TKOd by Cat Zingano in 2014, she upgraded her game and has been brutal in her own right. It was a long walk to get here for Nunes. Like Cyborg, she lost her first fight and was just 9-4 after losing to Zingano. She started beating contenders and earned a shot at Tate, scoring a first-round choke win, before knocking Ronda Rousey out of the sport in a cut-throat exhibition of violence. She has been inactive, with just a fight apiece in 2017 and 2018, with her last win a last-round TKO over tough Raquel Pennington.

There might be a disparity in how each woman arrived at this spot and the difficulty it required. Cyborg has fought tough women—there is no disputing that. But perhaps the super-high level of her dominance needs to be tempered a bit. The UFC only just started a 145-pound class, a weight she can barely make. She has fought in the UFC just 5 times and against good fighters, but only Holly Holm stands out as someone who is anywhere near elite-status. Holm, by the way, went the distance in that fight and while Cyborg was dominant, she was less than the rampaging marauder we have seen in her other fights. The rest of her record is filled with solid opposition, but no one on this level.

Contrarily, Nunes holds wins over Germaine De Randamie, Valentina Shevchenko (twice), Tate, Rousey, and others who would rank above the vast bulk of Cyborg’s opposition. So when we look at each fighter and categorize what we see, it’s important to do so with the right context. From that standpoint, Nunes has perhaps shined at a higher level. Let’s also mention that this doesn’t mean Cyborg wouldn’t have thrived against a more-elite level of opposition or that it’s her fault. It’s just food for thought.

If one were to fancy the underdog Nunes, there is ample daylight. Cyborg hasn’t fought anyone with close to the striking menace of Nunes. When Amanda digs in and lets those fists fly, it’s a difficult package of power, speed, and coordination in which to deal. And being Brazilian, she is also tremendously-versed in jiu-jitsu and knows how to handle herself on the ground.

There should be some action on the ground in this fight, but both fighters got here on the strength of their standup game. But just as Cyborg hasn’t seen a puncher on par with Nunes, the same can be said for Amanda. Cyborg represents a level of strength and punching power in which Nunes is totally unaccustomed. It’s simply hard to picture another female fighter beating Cyborg. It’s a different level. You can break down a fight any which way, but at the end of the day Cyborg just has superior physicality for the purposes of winning this fight.

Nunes might have some edges and she is perhaps a more-technical striker, but over the course of rounds, I don’t think she can withstand the power of Cyborg. Nunes is a tremendous fighter with more versatility than a lot of people think. But it’s hard not to notice how even seasoned fighters who have to know what is coming are still shocked when Cyborg unleashes the full scope of her menace. Nunes will need to stand with Cyborg, and she isn’t a good enough boxer to thwart the stronger Cyborg. I’m going with Cris “Cyborg” Santos to win.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Cyborg at -255 betting odds. Nunes is unquestionably Cyborg’s most-dangerous foe and a champion in her own right. Cyborg, however, is the bigger and superior fighting force and over the course of the fight, those advantages will begin to take their toll until Nunes runs out of options.

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UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson II Picks
When: Saturday, December 29, 2018
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV

Fight Analysis:

UFC 232 is the end-of-the-year card and this year, it packs endless fireworks. At the top of the bill is the long-awaited return of the king Jon Jones, as he takes on Alexander Gustafsson in a rematch. The first one was a close fight that was high in entertainment-value. The stakes are just as high for this bout, with the title and legacies hanging in the balance. Let’s break down who has the edge in this rematch!

Jon Jones, 22-1 (9 KOs, 6 Submissions), (-270) vs. Alexander Gustafsson, 22-4 (11 KOs, 3 Submissions), (+230)

Jon Jones takes on Alexander Gustafsson for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on December 29 in the UFC 232 main event. For Jones, 31, it’s a chance for him to regain the title in a rematch against the guy who gave him his toughest fight in a title defense in 2013. Jones won a decision that was met with some controversy, but a whole lot has happened since then. Unfortunately for Jones, much of it has been outside the octagon.

This signifies yet another comeback for the man many feel is the finest MMA fighter ever. Without getting into the merit of each wayward drug test attributed to Jones, this is his first appearance since he tested positive after beating Daniel Cormier in July of 2017. The win was overturned and Jones was suspended. There is no denying that despite the veracity of each failed test, he has pushed the envelope pretty far in terms of being a screw-up. Since beating Gustafsson over five years ago, he has fought four times.

Gustafsson, also 31, hasn’t been lighting the world on fire himself. His octagon appearances have gotten more-sporadic and he’s tasted defeat twice since nearly unseating Jones in a monstrous upset. A massive destruction at the hands of Anthony Johnson, followed by a loss to Daniel Cormier in a close title-fight loss, both in 2015, set him backwards some. He fought just twice since, with his last fight being a nice KO win over Glover Teixeira in May of last year. So, any feeling that Jones’ time has passed needs to be tempered with the fact that Gustafsson has been inactive and hasn’t exactly thrived at the top levels of 205 pounds since the first Jones fight.

Still, the stylistic issues that troubled Jones the first time are still in play. The Swede is one of the only light heavyweights that matches up well size-wise with the former champion Jones. He’s very long, though not as long as Jones. But it’s still a different look for “Bones,” who is used to dwarfing his foes in the octagon. He was the first fighter to score a successful takedown on Jones, while his takedown defense enabled him to avert Jones’ early takedown attempts.

It may seem like it was a decade ago, but it’s hard to forget what a tremendous 5-rounder it was the first time these two mixed it up at 165. It was a back-and-forth affair, with Gustafsson’s fast start taking many by surprise, including Jones. The fight reflected well on both men, who each walked through a lot of punishment to get to the final bell. Jones’ late spurt was enough to seal the win, but it was a very close and contested decision.

In terms of wrestling, Gustafsson held his own against Jones, especially in the early rounds. And for much of the fight, he outboxed Jones. Gustafsson was roughed up some by Jones’ elbows and kicks, but overall, he did well both on his feet and on the ground. It wasn’t until the final round when Jones was even able to land a takedown on Gustafsson.

Five years is an eternity in this sport. Some questions loom. On Jones’ side, when will all the inactivity and monkey-business register in his actual fighting form? Does he still have his razor’s edge? If one would have projected what the future had in store, you would think he’d be a heavyweight by now. How easy is it for him to still pare down his big frame to 205 pounds?

For Gustafsson, the results are mixed. Injuries have led to long spells of inactivity. You can’t rule him out for losing to a monster like Johnson, though it was a violent KO defeat. He has some separation from that in terms of time and came close to beating Cormier for the belt in his other title-try, showing a fighter who is still near the top of his game. His body of work over the last several years is so sparse that it’s hard to really find what peg-hole Gustafsson belongs.

While you want to gauge Gustafsson’s standing in overall terms, it’s important to remember how critical styles are in a sport like this. Granted, there are probably more concerns that Gustafsson is less of a force at 31 than he was at 26 than there are for Jones. For all his issues, we don’t actually possess any evidence that Jones is a diminished fighting force. Any slippage is more or less a projection at this point.

Again, styles speak loudest in this sport. It’s like years ago when George Foreman destroyed Joe Frazier, who had beaten Muhammad Ali. So when Foreman and Ali fought, who won? There is something about certain fighters that register differently against various opponents. Against Gustafsson, Jones is more in-range when he launches strikes and in their first fight, he paid the price. He can’t manhandle Gustafsson the way he does most opponents.

There is a lot of offsetting data in this matchup. Stylistically, different skills are rendered moot by what the other guy does. Jones’ recent trials and tribulations resonate less when considering Gustafsson’s injuries, setbacks, and inactivity. On one hand, Gustafsson should be hungrier, having not yet tasted the championship champagne. But since when did Jones look to be mailing it in? When last seen in the octagon last year, he surely didn’t fight like a rich man.

In other words, the bigger leap-of-faith in this matchup is to suspect a reduced version of Jones. Everything worked out beautifully the first time around for Gustafsson and he still came up short. I suspect his style will always be a thorn in Jones’ side, but that time has not been terribly kind to the Swede. Inactivity is never good, but Gustafsson’s was not by his own hand. And in the interim, he racked up a lot of wear and tear. I see Jones being his superior and by a wider margin this time.

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My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Jon Jones to win at -270 betting odds. Gustafsson is better now in some ways and maybe a greater menace with his hands. Jones knows what’s coming this time and is also eager to re-establish his brand. At the end of the day, he’s never been out-fought and is probably the greatest of all-time.

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