November 21, 2018: CHURCHILL DOWNS: 7: November 01, 2018: CHURCHILL DOWNS: 2: August 30, 2018: SARATOGA: 6: August 19, 2018: SARATOGA: 2: July 26, 2018: SARATOGA: 2: June 17, 2018: CHURCHILL DOWNS: 3: May 05, 2018: CHURCHILL DOWNS: 5: April 13, 2018: KEENELAND: 7: March 10, 2018: OAKLAWN PARK: 3: February 19, 2018: OAKLAWN PARK: 9: February 03, 2018: OAKLAWN PARK: 3. Saturday's big day of nine championship races gets under way at 10:15 a.m. Eastern, with the first Breeders' Cup race scheduled for 12:02 p.m. Of note is the $260,779 Pick 6 carryover that spices. The 2021 Breeders’ Cup will be held at Del Mar on November 5 & 6. Catch all the action live on NBC Sports.
By Noel Michaels
Game Winner takes the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 11/4/18. (Jordan Thomson Photo)
For horseplayers, the Breeders’ Cup is the most anticipated event of the year. You’ve got your world class horses, large, wide-open fields, multiple betting options, and great wagering value.
The 37th Breeders’ Cup opens at Keeneland on Friday, featuring five races for 2-year-olds, now called Future Stars Friday. On Saturday, the remaining nine Breeders’ Cup races will be run topped off by the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Two days, 14 championship races with $31 million in purses. Now that’s a racing weekend handicappers could love. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, strict health and safety regulations are in place, and no spectators will be in attendance.
The Friday BC races are the Juvenile Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the featured $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In all, Friday’s card has 10 races, with the Breeders’ Cup races going as races 6-10.
The BC races can be combined by bettors in the Pick 5, as well as a Pick 4 on races 7-10 and rolling Pick 3’s and daily doubles.
Here’s a look at some track trends for Keeneland relevant to Friday’s BC races:
Posts 3-7 trending in 2-turn races
At the recently concluded Keeneland fall meet, middle posts 3-7 dominated in two-turn dirt races. Most dirt routes were won from posts 3-7, which won 35 of the 43 races. Horses breaking from inside posts 1-2 won five races from 86 starters, and outside posts 8-12 won three races from 29 starters. This is relevant for the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies to be run at 1 1/16 miles.
Turf trends favor inside posts
In Keeneland turf routes at the recent fall meet, posts 1-4 accounted for most of the winners with horses breaking from those gates winning 22 of the 35 races. Horses won from all the way out to post 11, but as the group the inside posts were a definite advantage over middle and outside posts. This is relevant for the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Look outside in turf sprints
Keeneland runs very few turf sprints, averaging only about eight a meet, but these 5 1/2-furlong dashes tend to yield consistent results based on the long-range stats, Keeneland’s turf sprints favor two things: middle-to-outside posts; and off-the-pace runners that rally from between two and six lengths behind with a half-mile to run. This was true again this fall when horses breaking from posts 7-11 won six of the eight turf sprints despite having far less starters than posts 1-6. Upgrade outside runners in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, especially since the betting public often mistakenly downgrades outside posts in turf sprints.
A speed-favoring dirt track
When looking at preferred running styles of winners of Keeneland dirt routes, Keeneland is still mostly a speed-favoring track – not as much as in the pre-Polytrack paved highway era, but nevertheless speed and tactical speed are still preferred. Horses have their best chances by staying within four lengths of the lead at the first call in routes. About 20 percent of all 1 1/16-mile races are won wire-to-wire.
With a look at the history of the 2-year-old BC races set for Friday, each has its own tips and trends, with the Juvenile Turf, on paper, the most formful with an average win payoff of $15.46 from 13 runnings of the race.
Checking on Juvenile Fillies history
Historically, the Breeders’ Cup race that is most likely to yield a winning favorite is the Juvenile Fillies, with 10 winning favorites. However, when you look at the list of average winning payoffs, the Juvenile Fillies actually ranks the highest now out of the five Friday BC races with an average winning payoff of $21.73.
How can the Juvenile Fillies have both the most winning favorites and the highest average win payoff? The reason has been a recent trend of high-priced winners in the race that have skewed the average, including Take Charge Brandi, who paid $125.40 in 2014, as well as other long shots like Champagne Room in 2016 and Caledonia Road in 2017. Is should be noted, however, that favorites were up to their old tricks again in the Juvenile Fillies last year, finishing 1-2 with second-favorite British Idiom beating favorite Donna Veloce.
RELATED:2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Profile: Improbable
And now, a race-by-race look at Breeders’ Cup trends for the Friday:
$1 million Juvenile Sprint Turf Sprint (race 6)
Distance: 5 1/2 furlongs, turf
Best Running Style: Wire-to-wire
Winning tip: Bet horses with big early speed and a chance to go wire-to-wire. Even in a race loaded with speed, picking the “speed of the speed” is preferable to a closer. Keeneland’s turf sprints favor posts in the outside half of the field.
The Juvenile Turf Sprint has only been run twice, with Four Wheel Drive coming out of a race in New York to go wire-to-wire for trainer Wesley Ward with Irad Ortiz, Jr., aboard paying $5. The inaugural Juvenile Turf Sprint in 2018 was also won wire-to-wire. The winning horse, Bulletin, came from a race in Florida trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano.
The 2020 Juvenile Turf Sprint favorite, #14 Golden Pal, fits the profile of a winner, loaded with early speed, drawn on the outside, and trained by Ward, whose other contenders in the field are #8 Amanzi Yimpilo, #9 After Five, and #11 Into the Sunshine.
$1 million Juvenile Turf (race 7)
Distance: 1 Mile, turf
Best Running Style: Closer
Winning tip: This race has been dominated by Europeans, and the average win payout has been only $15.46, which indicates this is not a long shot’s race in what is normally a 14-horse field. Inside posts are better in Keeneland turf miles.
Horses that have done well in this race include European shippers coming out of a first- or second-place finish in their last start. You also want to look for horses whose final Breeders’ Cup prep came at a distance of a mile or more (the longer the better). This is a 14-horse field, but at Keeneland the inside posts are preferred in turf routes. Horses that fit this description include #1 Sealiway and #2 New Mandate, who is a big overlay on the morning line at 12-1 with Frankie Dettori aboard. Dettori is one of the all-time winningest jockeys in the history of the Breeders’ Cup. The #6 Mustasaabeq won the local prep in the Bourbon (G2) for Todd Pletcher. Belmont’s Pilgrim (G2) has been an important prep, and this year’s winner, multiple stakes winner #7 Fire At Will, is also in with a chance at 12-1 on the morning line. If you followed the recent election and are a hunch player, you could also do a lot worse than #9 Battleground, who comes off back-to-back wins in England for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
$2 million JUVENILE FILLIES (Race 8)
Champagne Room winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (photo by Jim Safford).
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Best Running Style: Close to the pace
Winning tip: This race is usually won by the favorite, or a big long shot. In a seven-horse race this year, the favorite(s) will be tough to knock off.
The Juvenile Fillies has been the Breeders’ Cup’s chalkiest race, with 10 winning favorites in its 36-year history. However, you would not know that this usually is a chalky race by looking at the average win price, which seems rather high in comparison to other races due to some winning long shots the last 10 years, including a $125.40 winner. So, in the Juvenile Fillies, what you are looking for is either the favorite(s), or a big long shot to upset the apple cart. At 1 1/16-miles on the main track, what you want at Keeneland is a horse with speed or tactical speed, preferably from a middle post 3-7. Speed or tactical speed has also historically been good in this particular race. This year we only have seven horses in the Juvenile Fillies, and the favorite, #7 Princess Noor, is well-drawn on the outside and loaded with speed for trainer Bob Baffert. She will be tough to beat based on her dominant back-to-back victories in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Santa Anita’s Chandelier (G2). The best chance at an upset goes to #3 Dayoutoftheoffice, who won Belmont’s Frizette (G1) in her last race.
$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 9)
Distance: 1 Mile, turf
Best Running Style: Presser/Stalker
Winning tip: Bet a North American-based horse with a stalking or pace-pressing running style who is exiting a win or second-place finish in her last race.
Unlike the Juvenile Turf, the Juvenile Fillies Turf has not been dominated by Europeans. It has been ruled by North American-based horses. Trainer Chad Brown has won four of the last six runnings. No Euro shipper has won since Chriselliam in 2013. At Keeneland at this distance, the inside posts 1-4 are the best place to be. Pressers and stalkers have an advantage over speed horses and deeper closers. Key prep races have included the Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh (Ire), Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont, and the local Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland.
The horse that seems perfectly positioned to win, based on preps, running style, and post position, is the undefeated 3-for-3 #4 Plum Ali trained by Christophe Clement and ridden by Joel Rosario. Graham Motion, the defending champion trainer of this race who won last year with Sharing, also has a prime contender with #3 Alda, who was second last time out in Woodbine’s Natalma (G1). Of course Brown is represented, and you can’t ignore him with #14 Editor At Large, even though that horse’s post position hurts. The winner of the local prep, the Jessamine (G2) is #5 Aunt Pearl, but if she is to win she is going to have to go wire-to-wire, which has been a difficult feat to accomplish in the history of this race.
$2 million Juvenile (Race 10)
Distance: 1-1/16 miles
Best Running Style: Stalker
Winning Tip: Well-bet speed horses or value-priced closers have done well in the Juvenile, but what you want at Keeneland at this distance is speed or tactical speed, preferably from middle posts.
The Juvenile drew a full field of 14 horses, but will feature perhaps the day’s biggest favorite, #7 Jackie’s Warrior, trained by Steve Asmussen. Jackie’s Warrior is undefeated in four races, and has been brought up to this race expertly with the distances of each career race steadily escalating from 5 furlongs, to 6 furlongs, to 7 furlongs, to a mile last time when he crushed Belmont’s Champagne (G1) by five lengths with a 100 Beyer speed figure.
Beyond the favorite, this race appears to be wide open, and the value will be in betting the exacta boxes or trifectas. In sticking with the winning profile of this race, you should be looking for speed or tactical speed horses drawn in preferential middle post positions at this distance at Keeneland. The most meaningful preps usually include Santa Anita’s American Pharoah, Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity, and Belmont’s Champagne. The last six runnings have been won by six different trainers.
Therefore, along with Jackie’s Warrior, go ahead and use horses like #3 Reinvestment Risk trained by Brown, #5 Essential Quality trained by Brad Cox, and maybe even #13 Rombauer trained by Michael McCarthy, in your exotics.
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tacitus | 20-1 | |
| 2 | Tiz the Law | Manuel Franco | 3-1 |
| 3 | By My Standards | Gabriel Saez | 10-1 |
| 4 | Tom’s d’Etat | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 5 | Title Ready | Corey Lanerie | 30-1 |
| 6 | Higher Power | Flavien Prat | 20-1 |
| 7 | Global Campaign | Javier Castellano | 20-1 |
| 8 | Improbable | Irad Ortiz Jr | 5-2 |
| 9 | Authentic | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 10 | Maximum Security | Luis Saez | 7-2 |
The fields have been drawn and the 35th running of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is just days away under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs on November 2-3. The inaugural Future Stars Friday card will showcase talented two-year-olds, while their elder counterparts take the spotlight one day later.
Brisnet.com has kept pace throughout the season, with previews, recaps and news, and offers fans this convenient Guide to everything Breeders’ Cup related.
Check back each day for updates and don’t forget to visit TwinSpires.com for the Breeders’ Cup News & Notes page featuring handicapping articles and analysis!
FREE Brisnet.com PPS for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Classic!
Friday, November 2
6:05 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
5:22 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
4:40 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
4:00 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
3:21 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Future Breeders Cup Locations
Saturday, November 3
5:44 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Classic
4:56 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Turf
4:16 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Distaff
3:36 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Mile
2:46 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Sprint
2:04 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
1:16 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
12:38 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
12:00 p.m. Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Breeders’ Cup Headlines
…MORE!
Breeders’ Cup Works
Breeders’ Cup Implications
October
Concrete Rose blossoms in Jessamine WAYI for Juvenile Fillies Turf
Jaywalk can’t be caught in Frizette
Crook dominates Flower Bowl; Uncle Benny rallies in Futurity
Blue Prize takes Spinster; Strike Silver, Current up in time in Keeneland juvenile turf stakes
Wild Illusion, Royal Marine, Lily’s Candle earn Breeders’ Cup spots on Arc undercard
Roy H superior again in Santa Anita Sprint Championship
Next Shares upsets Shadwell Turf Mile; A Raving Beauty changes tactics in First Lady
Knicks Go keeps going in 70-1 Breedes’ Futurity upset
Golden Mischief prevails in TCA; Bucchero defends title in Woodford
Complexity scores effortless wire victory in Champagne
Restless Rider gives McPeek fourth win in Alcibiades
Promises Fulfilled hangs on in Phoenix, earns berth in TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint
September
Zenyatta stunner: Vale Dori recaptures spark Abel Tasman loses hers in fifth
Japan’s Fine Needles might use BC Turf Sprint ticket from Sprinters Stakes
Discreet Lover upsets Jockey Club Gold Cup
Channel Maker turns back rivals in Joe Hirsch Turf Classic
Imperial Hint headed to Breeders’ Cup Sprint off Vosburgh romp
Accelerate outlasts West Coast in clash of Breeders’ Cup Classic threats in Awesome Again
Vasilika makes it seven straight in Breeders’ Cup WAYI Rodeo Drive
Game Winner still perfect in Breeders’ Cup WAYI American Pharoah
Bellafina beautifully fine in Chandelier
Mohawk jumps up to earn BC ticket, European Road to the Kentucky Derby points in Royal Lodge
Just Wonderful acceleration in Breeders’ Cup WAYI Rockfel
La Pelosa, Fog of War win Breeders’ Cup berths at Woodbine in Natalma, Summer
Cairo Cat scratches out upset score in Iroquois, takes home Kentucky Derby points and Breeders’ Cup berth
Serengeti Empress conquers Breeders’ Cup WAYI Pocahontas by record margin
Ortiz’s supporting role earns Oscar Performance victory in the Woodbine Mile
Sippican Harbor sails to upset victory in Spinaway, WAYI berth to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
August
Glorious Empire leads all the way in Sword Dancer, earns berth in BC Turf
Abel Tasman edges Elate in Personal Ensign; Promises Fulfilled stars in Allen Jerkens Memorial
Whitmore prevails in Forego, Marley’s Freedom takes Ballerina in Saratoga bows
Catalina Cruiser makes short work of Pat O’Brien rivals, qualifies for BC Dirt Mile
Accelerate thrills in Pacific Classic runaway
Fashion Business romps in Del Mar Handicap, earns Breeders Cup Turf bid
Alpha Centauri stars in Prix Jacques le Marois, WAYI for Breeders’ Cup Mile
Robert Bruce Million victory adds to Arlington international flavor
Sistercharlie leads Brown sweep of Beverly D.
Diversify wires rain-delayed Whitney in effortless score
Lightning Spear takes Sussex, a WAYI for Breeders’ Cup Mile
July
Good Magic makes statement in Breeders’ Cup WAYI Haskell
Unique Bella earns Breeders’ Cup berth with Clement L. Hirsch score
Ransom the Moon rolls late to defend title, stamp Sprint ticket in Bing Crosby
Poet’s Word edges Crystal Ocean in King George exacta for record-breaking Stoute
Limousine Liberal secures Breeders’ Cup berth with Belmont Sprint Championship score
June
Stormy Embrace upsets Princess Rooney to earn spot in Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Long On Value streaks toward Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint with Highlander victory
Mikki Rocket gets jump on Werther in Breeders’ Cup WAYI Takarazuka Kinen
Merchant Navy sails to Diamond Jubilee triumph on final day at Royal Ascot
Shang Shang Shang beats the boys in Norfolk; Dettori scores 60th victory at Royal Ascot
Poet’s Word captures Prince of Wales’s to give Stoute record 76th win at Royal Ascot
Without Parole, Accidental Agent and Blue Point star on Royal Ascot opener
Pavel breaks out of slump, punches Breeders’ Cup ticket in Stephen Foster
Blue Prize takes the Breeders’ Cup prize in Fleur de Lis
Bee Jersey holds off Mind Your Biscuits to win Met Mile
Abel Tasman romps in Ogden Phipps
Disco Partner repeats in Jaipur
Frankel colt Mozu Ascot hits new high in Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ Yasuda Kinen
Breeders Cup Futures 2018 Schedule
May
Breeders Cup Future Odds
April
Breeders Cup Future Sites
February
January
Legal Eagle earns Breeders’ Cup Mile berth in Queen’s Plate three-peat
Oh Susanna beats elders in Paddock, gains spot in Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf